Civil wars in Middle East and North Africa Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Libya Developing countries of the Global South in international relations Civil war • A violent conflict between a state and one (or more) organized non-state actor X interstate conflict, violent conflict not involving state, state repression, terrorism • 3 main types of civil war 1. The aim is to take control over the central government 2. Efforts for territorial secession or autonomy 3. Ethnic civil war • Insurgents are usually trying to carry out social transformation Arab spring The reason of unrests? • Series of pro-democracy uprisings - began in the spring 2011 • In several mainly Muslim countries - Tunisia, Morocco, Syria, Libya, Yemen, Egypt and Bahrain • Arab spring in general resulted in some kind of change • Regime change - Tunisia, Egypt, Libya • In unsuccessful countries there has been/is a period of violence, instability and insecurity • Arab spring faded in 2012 after protests were suppressed by authorities Syrian civil war, Iraqi insurgency, Libyan civil war, Yemeni civil war,... Syrian civil war 2» nr. Br- :"''■■if'-^f ii>- Background Syrian civil war Background Syrian civil war • 1963 a coup d'etat — successful seizure of power by the military committee of the Syrian Regional Branch (Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party) • March 1971 - Hafez al-Assad declared himself president • Syrian Regional Branch was dominant political authority for 40 years = one-party state • Until the first multi-party elections in 2012 to the People's Council of Syria • 2000 Hafez al-Assad died -> his son Bashar al-Assad was elected as President of Syria • Bashar al-Assad = the symbol of democratization, modernization and social reforms? Background Syrian civl war • Demographics of Syria - approximately 10 different ethnic groups • Arab 50 %, Alawite 15 %, Kurd 10 %, Levantine 10 %, other 15 % • Huge socioeconomic inequality - free market policy with an emphasis on the service sector • High youth unemployments and poverty = high discontent with the government • From 2006 to 2011 Syria faced intence drought -> crop failure, increased food prices, massive urbanization • Controlled humans rights by the state - from 1963 to 2011 emergency rule How the Syrian war began? The start of Syrian civil war • From December 2010 protests spread across the Middle East and North Africa • Syrian protests started in March 2011 in the southwestern city of Deraa • Protesters were calling for greater freedoms, the end of corruption, the end of emergency rule, the release of political prisoners • Assad's government immediately suppressed the uprisings - firstly with token reforms, then with force • The Syrian army fired on protesters, made mass arrests both on dissidents men and boys and tortured them in detention Sunni majority and other X Alawite minority (Assad's ethnic group) Who is involved? Turkey GCC: Gulf Cooperation Council, countries participate separately and in different periods. Attacking Who is involved? Domestic actors • Syrian Arab Republic and the Syrian Armed Forces - president Assad • Free Syrian Army and its Sunni opposition rebel groups allies - opposition • Kurdish-Arab Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) - defectors from SAF, opposition • Salafi jihadist groups (al-Nusra etc.) • ISIS + other islamic groups -> all of these actors are fighting each other Who is involved? Foreign actors Iran + Russia + Hezbollah support the Syrian Arab Republic and the Syrian Armed Forces USA + UK + France + Turkey support the Free Syrian Army USA support materially, financially and logistically the Syrian Democratic Forces The U.S.-led international coalition is fighting against ISIS Countries that support the Syrian government Countries that support Syrian rebels Countries that are divided in their support Refugee crisis The actual result of this war Refugee crisis More than half of population has been displaced - prewar Syria 22 mil. citizens 6 milion displaced internally 6 milion displaced internationally Most of them fled to neighbor countries - Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey More than 1 milion journeyed to Europe UN called this the largest migrant and refugee crisis since WW II. Where have all the Syrian refugees gone? Sweden 127,935 Netherlands 47,505 Belgium 28,450 < Denmark •21,980 Germany 674,655 Top 10 European countries for asylum applications* Syrian refugees registered in neighbouring countries** France Austria 27,505 58,285 Hungary 078,285 Bulgaria 22,960 Greece 80,395 Lebanon 865,531 North Africa 31,657 Egypt 130,577 "Latest figures up to to end of 2020 fc*Latest figures up to Feb 2021 Tu rkey 3,655,067 Iraq 243,121 Jordan 664,603 Source: Eurostat / UNHCR □□H Recent development 10 years on Recent development 10 years on • 10 years on Syria is still in the low-intense conflict, political instability and economic disorder -> more than 80 % of the population lives in poverty • 2020 - cease-fire between Government and Turkey in the northwest Syria scaled down violence • Syria is facing international sanctions from USA (Ceasar Act) and diplomatic problems • 2021 - foreign actors (Iran, Russia, Turkey, Qatar,...) started with negotiations to resolve Syrian crisis • May 2021 - Bashar al'Assad was re-elected President of Syria for another 7 years li civil war í • « ^1 Background Yemeni civil war Background Yemeni civil war • Until 1960s Zaydis ruled in Yemen - Zaydis then faced discrimination and sunnification • The Houthis (Shiite islam fraction) fought against sunni-based governments of Yemen - despite several peace agreement were signed • 2004 - Houthi's leader Hussein Badreddin al-Houti was killed by military during antigovernment protests • 2011 Yemeni revolution - the Houthis supported protests calling for the resign of President Ali Abdullah Saleh • 2012 single-candidate president elections - Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi became president for the next 2 year term How did the Yemeni war star? SAUDI ARABIA Y E M Ma'rib 0Ataq Olbb O Al Bayda °Aden How did the Yemeni war start? • President Hadi struggled with Yemen's problems - attack by jihadists, separatists, corruption, unemployment, lack of food and strong loyalty to Mr Saleh • September 2014 - the Houthis took over the capital city Sanaa • January 2015 - the fall of Hadi's government • Hadi fled the country - in September 2015 returned to Aden • The Houthis allied with military forces loyal to Saleh to gain influence over Yemen • The Houthis formed The Supreme Political Council in 2016 to be claimed as a Yemen's government • December 2017 - Saleh broke alliance with the Houthis and started fighting them -> Saleh was killed two days after Who is involved? ■ ■ ■ ■ Intermittent Relationship Power or influence Tension or onflict Who is involved? Domestic actors • The Houthi movement - Shiite rebels, Iranian proxy? • President's Hadi government • Southern Movement (Southern Transitional Council) - former allies of the Houthis • Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula -> all of these actors are fighting each other Who is involved? Foreign actors • Iran - the Houthi's primary international backer (military support, weapon support) • Saudi Arabia + a coalition of Sunni-majority Arab states - support President Hadi • USA, France, Germany, UK - supporting Saudi-led coalition • USA fighting against Al-Qaeda - counterterrorism programs • United Arab Emirates - supporting the Southern Movement Iran X Saudi Arabia proxy war? Human crisis Human crisis Around 233,000 people were killed -131,000 from hunger, lack of health service,... More than 10,000 children were killed Struggling with ongoing famine - in 2018 UN claimed that 13 milion people face starvation Spreading diseases - cholera, Covid UN says it's the worst world's humanitarian disaster Recent developninet 7 years on Recent development 7 years on • 2018 - Southern Transitional Council ousted Hadi loyalists from Aden • March 2019 - US Congress voted to end US support in Yemen, however President Trump vetoed it • US President Joe Biden announced a freeze on arms sales to their allies in Yemen -support to United Arab Emirates continues, support to Saudi Arabia stopped • 2021 - Houthis attacks in Saudi Arabia targeting oil tankers, facilities and airports -> Saudi Arabia increased airstrikes targeting Sanaa • The conflict is still active with no successful peace negotiations Yemen's Front Lines Territorial control and influence as of February 2021 Government control Government influence RED SEA Southern Transitional Council control Houthi control 0 Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) control AQAP influence SAUDI ARABIA O Saada Sanaa © O Hodeidah (contested) Taiz (contested) O Aden J ^OMukalla Sources: Risk Intelligence; Congressional Research Service. GULFOFADEN COUNCIL™, FOREIGN RELATIONS How Iraqi war began? Who was involved? What is the result? Is the war really over? Background Background Libyan civil war 1969 - the Free Officers group deposed Libyan King Idris with Muammar Gaddafi the lead 1970 - Gaddafi became the head of Libya, withdrew Constitution From 1969 standards of living has highly increased 1975 - Gaddafi published his manifesto The Green Book 1977 - Muammar Gaddafi officially resigned, however he was still in power Gadaffi was considered to be "a master of tactical maneuvering" First Libyan civil war Second Libyan civil war What is the result?